Steve’s Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Best Supporting Actress

It’s time to begin my prognostication in anticipation of the Academy Awards. It’s been a great year at the movies! Despite living in Montana, I’ve had the good fortune to see nearly all the films that are nominated in the best picture, director, and four acting categories. The only ones I’ve missed are Amour, The Impossible, and The Sessions. So, with no further ado, the envelope, please…

Best Supporting Actress Nominations (odds of winning):

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) (3 to 2)

Sally Field (Lincoln) (8 to 1)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions) (15 to 1)

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) (17 to 1)

Amy Adams (The Master) (30 to 1)

anne fan and cat

Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Should Win: Sally Field or anyone other than Anne Hathaway

I’ll get this category out of the way first because it is the one that I know I am going to find the most irritating when we hear those familiar words, “and the Oscar goes to…” I’m sure to be grumbling because there is no doubt that the sentence will end with the announcement that Anne Hathaway is the winner. Just what has she done that has earned her these accolades? Well, let’s see, she sang ‘I Dreamed a Dream.’ Of course, receiving recognition for singing that song is hardly unheard of. Just ask Susan Boyle. Granted, she did sing it with snot running out of her nose, even while a camera was being shoved up her nose. Impressive, but worthy of an acting Oscar? She also had her hair cut, some teeth pulled, and did it doggy style, all while looking really, really sad. Now she’s looking really, really happy while winning every imaginable honor. I don’t blame Anne. She did give it her all and she’s winning despite the horrendous directing of Tom Hooper (more on that in the best picture category.)

But, I still wonder, what has gotten into these awards people? It’s not as if there was a lack of strong performances this past year. All four of those nominated are deserving of recognition. I was especially impressed by Sally Field. Despite being seemingly too old for the part, she nailed it. I’d love to see her get up on that stage and exclaim, “You like me, you really like me,” but there is little chance of that. Her only hope is a Lincoln sweep, which seemed at least possible when the nominations were announced. Not now though. Sorry, Sally. I haven’t yet seen The Sessions, but the word is that Helen Hunt gives a daring and endearing performance. The only complaint I’ve read about her nomination is that it should have been in the best actress category, rather than supporting. There are complaints that Jacki Weaver doesn’t do enough in Silver Linings Playbook to deserve her nomination. True, she doesn’t “do” a lot, doesn’t say much, but she has a power of presence that is a delight to watch. She’s does as much with facial expression and body language as anyone acting today. Even more than Field, her only hope is a Silver Linings landslide. I thought Amy Adams was the highlight of The Master, outshining both Joaquin Phoenix and Phillip Seymour Hoffman. They’ve received more notice, but she showed more depth of character than they did. The Master had some early momentum, but that is long gone, as are her chances of winning.

Given all that, how will I console myself when the inevitable happens? I’m going to pretend that Hathaway is winning for her role as Catwoman in The Dark Knight Rises. I thought she was fabulous, maybe the best character in that movie. Her Catwoman certainly had more depth to it than her Fantine. So, that’s my plan…way to go, Catwoman!

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